Paths Untaken: The History, Epistemology and Strategy of Technological Restraint, and Lessons for AI

Abstract

If the development of certain technologies, such as advanced, unaligned AI, would be as dangerous as some have suggested, a long-termist legal perspective might advocate a strategy of technological delay —or even restraint—to avoid a default outcome of catastrophe. To many, restraint–a decision to withhold indefinitely from the development, or at least deployment, of the technology–might look implausible. However, history offers a surprising array of cases where strategically promising technologies were delayed, abandoned, or left unbuilt, even though many at the time perceived their development as inevitable. They range from radiological- and weather weapons to atomic planes, from dozens of voluntarily cancelled state nuclear weapons programs, to a Soviet internet, and more.

Matthijs Maas

Senior Research Fellow

I am a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Law & AI, working on adaptive global governance approaches for AI.